8/15/2006

The Israeli Hole Card

Efraim Inbar points out the weak link of the Iran/Syria/H'b Axis of Mideast evil.

The IDF's 'Cask of Amontillado' option won't touch U.N. 'peacekeepers', but will draw withering international ire.

When the Israeli people internalize the current threat, watch for this scenario to unfold...to everyone's surprise.




[Update] Walid Phares' bullshit detector goes Richter regarding the Syrian "Terrorist Attack". I had a similar reaction to the news, but his analysis is much more cogent than I could produce. I am reminded of a Far Side cartoon where two deer are standing in the woods. One has a target on his chest, and his companion says: "Bummer of a birthmark, dude!" I'm guessing that's what Imadinnerjacket's saying to Bashir about now.



posted by Mike at 8:02 PM


2 Comments:

Blogger Dan tdaxp said...

From an Israeli perspective, there are two problems with an attack Syria strategy

1. Such an action would strengthen Hezbollah's status as Iran's prefered partner in the Levant. (Making a Syrian War a "Hezbollah War writ large")

2. Such an action would likely lead to the replacement of the unpopular abd cultish Syrian Baath Party with the more popular and energetic Muslim Brothers.

12:32 PM  
Blogger Mike said...

Dan,

You are absolutely right about the two problems with attacking the Assad regime. I'm not sure the first hasn't already happened. Nasrallah has demonstrated he's got no qualms with doing the mullahs' dirty work, whether it's systematic assassination of all opponents or a large-scale military conflict with Israel. He's clever, ambitious, wildly popular, and philosophically/theocratically aligned with Iran.

The second point is a calculated risk that creates an enemy state, but if Syria remains a reliable conduit for material support for Nasrallah, it may be the lesser of two evils for Israel.

Thanks for stopping by and for the great comment!

Mike

12:52 PM  

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